US Ka Naya Pressure: Kya India-Russia Ka Oil Connection Khatre Mein?

New Delhi: Russia se sasta oil lena ab tak India ke liye ek economic jackpot raha hai. Lekin ab US ne ek secondary tariff threat dekar warning di hai ki agar kisi country ne Russia se oil lena continue kiya, toh us country ke products par US me import hone par 500% tak penal tariff lagaya ja sakta hai.

Is warning ka direct impact India ke oil import, refining profit, trade relations aur geopolitical balancing par pad sakta hai.

Russia Se Discounted Oil Deal: India Ke Liye Fayde Ka Sauda

Russia-Ukraine war ke baad, jab West ne Russia par sanctions lagaye, toh Russia ne apna crude oil huge discount par China, India jaise countries ko dena start kiya.

India ne is opportunity ka full advantage liya. 2022 ke baad se lekar 2025 tak, India ne Russia se lagbhag 35% se zyada crude import kiya, Gulf countries jaise Saudi Arabia aur Iraq ko peeche chhod diya.

Benefit kya tha?

  • Har barrel $3 se $6 tak sasta milta tha

  • Refining margins high ho gaye

  • Domestic fuel price par control banaye rakhna easy ho gaya

US Ka Secondary Tariff Threat Kya Hai?

Secondary tariffs ka matlab hai ki agar koi country Russian oil purchase kar raha hai, toh US us country ke goods par import duties (tariff) laga sakta hai — chahe wo goods US me export ho rahe ho, ya indirectly Russia ke economy ko support kar rahe ho.

US Senate me ek proposal aaya hai jisme likha hai:

  • Russia se oil lene wali countries ke goods par up to 500% tariff lagaya ja sakta hai

  • Waivers sirf un countries ko milenge jo sanctions-compliant trade karte ho

  • Iska target hai: India, China, Turkey, etc.

Kya Ye Threat Reality Banega?

Market analysts abhi is threat ko political pressure tool maante hain, lekin risk ignore nahi kiya ja sakta.

Agar US actual me 100% ya 500% tariff impose karta hai, toh oil price spike hone ka chance hai

Global Brent Crude price $100+/barrel tak ja sakta hai

Iska effect inflation, supply chain aur global economy par padega

Experts bol rahe hain:

“Abhi US sirf pressure create kar raha hai, lekin Trump ya Biden government ne clear nahi kiya ki India jaise allies ko waiver milega ya nahi.”

Trump and modi

India Par Kya Asar Hoga?

1. Oil Import Cost Badh Sakti Hai
Agar India ko Russia se oil lena band karna pada ya discounts band ho gaye, toh:

  • Refiners ko alternative sources (Saudi, Iraq, US) se oil lena padega
  • Ye oil costly hoga, isse import bill badhega
  • Refining margins reduce honge
  • Petrol/Diesel price par pressure padega

 

2. Refinery Profitability Down Ja Sakti Hai
Indian refiners jaise Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, Reliance ko Russian crude se huge margin milta tha. Agar tariff ka risk badh gaya:

  • Refiners cautious ho jayenge
  • Russian cargo lene se bachenge
  • Shadow fleet ke through supply lena risky ho jayega

 

3. US-India Trade Relations Pe Impact
US, India ka top 2 trade partner hai. Agar India Russia se oil lena continue karta hai:

  • US me India ke export items (pharma, textiles, engineering goods) pe tariffs lag sakte hai
  • Trade deal negotiations slow ho sakti hai
  • FDI aur business trust level pe bhi asar padega

India Ki Strategy Kya Hai?

India ne officially abhi ye bola hai ki:

“We will cross that bridge when we come to it.”

Ye matlab hai ki India situation observe kar raha hai.

Actions taken so far:

Refiners ko bola gaya hai ki “sanctions-compliant cargoes” hi accept karein

Russia ke suppliers ko compliance prove karna hoga

Alternative sourcing channels explore kiye ja rahe hain – Brazil, UAE, US, Venezuela etc.

Strategic petroleum reserves pe kaam chal raha hai

Future Scenarios: 3 Possibilities

ScenarioResultIndia’s Move
Tariff threat bluffNo impact on importsRussia se oil lena continue
Tariffs imposedOil import cost hikeAlternate sourcing aur diplomacy strong
Full 500% TariffExports to US hitEnergy strategy + Trade diversification

China, Turkey, Brazil Par Bhi Pressure

Conclusion: India Ko Kya Karna Chahiye?

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